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What are the odds?

Posted by Adam Kilgore, Globe Staff  October 15, 2008 11:38 AM

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History tells us the Red Sox can do this, can look at their 3-1 deficit in the American League Championship Series, shrug their shoulders, win three straight and roll into the World Series. Math tells us there's chance that will happen, but not much of one.

If the Red Sox and Rays were two random teams – like two sides of a flipped coin – some sixth-grade probability tells us the Sox have got a 12.5 percent shot to make the World Series.

The folks at CoolStandings.com, who calculate playoff chances all season long, give the Red Sox an 11.1 percent chance of winning the series.

BetUS.com, an online sportsbook, does not have odds posted for the Red Sox-Rays series. But, for a comparison, if you wanted to bet the Philadelphia Phillies to win the NLCS with their three-games-to-one advantage, you’d have to wager $1,000 to win $100.

What chance, going percent, do you give the Red Sox to move on?

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