11. OriolesLast year: 69-93
They'll win if: Matt Wieters (pictured) continues to improve and becomes an elite catcher.
They'll lose if: their rotation doesn't exceed expectations. Following No. 1 pitcher Wei-Yin Chen, who isn't a sure thing, Jason Hammel, Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz posted poor 2011 campaigns.