Markey holds a 10 point lead over Gomez in new Senate poll

Democrat Edward J. Markey holds a 10 point lead over his Republican rival, Gabriel E. Gomez, according to a new poll released one day before voters cast ballots in the special election for US Senate in Massachusetts.

Markey, the veteran congressman, leads Gomez, an investor and former Navy SEAL, 52 percent to 42 percent among likely voters, with 4 percent undecided, according to the poll by Suffolk University in Boston. In the last Suffolk poll, released June 10, Markey led Gomez by 7 percentage points, 48 percent to 41 percent.

“These numbers suggest that tomorrow night Ed Markey will make the transformation from congressman to senator-elect,” David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said in a statement accompanying the new poll. “All eyes will be watching to see how Markey’s final vote tally stacks up against Elizabeth Warren’s eight-point win over Scott Brown last November.”

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The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Wednesday through Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The poll also surveyed three “bellwether areas”—Lowell, Dartmouth and South Hadley—thought to be predictive of the outcome on Tuesday because their margins have mirrored the statewide results in past Senate elections. All suggest that Markey is headed toward victory on Tuesday.

In Lowell, Markey leads Gomez 49 percent to 38 percent; in Dartmouth his lead is 52 percent to 37 percent; and in South Hadley, his lead is 51 percent to 37 percent.

The bellwether survey was conducted Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.65 percentage points.