Poll paints picture of future EU
Larger image envisioned as it turns 50
PARIS -- The Europe of 2057 is a larger place, its borders stretched eastward to encompass Turkey and, probably, Russia. It is a greener place, where wind and sun power have supplanted fossil fuels. It has been the battleground for at least one new war. And the dominant language is English.
This vision of Europe's future emerges from a new trans-Atlantic poll timed to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the European Union. The results are not uniform across the six countries polled -- Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United States -- but, as through a hazy crystal ball, images of the world to come take shape.
These images contain good news for supporters of Europe's historic endeavor begun on March 25, 1957, with the signing of the Treaty of Rome: Fifty years from now, more than 5,300 European respondents strongly agreed, the European Union will still exist.
In overwhelming numbers, European respondents also believe that the euro is here to stay and will be the standard currency for Europe in 2057.
But the results of the poll, conducted for the International Herald Tribune and the French television station France 24 by
Fewer than a third of all respondents polled believe that relations between the United States and Europe are likely to be better in 2057 than they are today.
The survey canvassed 6,767 people, 5,373 in Europe and 1,394 in the United States, in online polling conducted from Feb. 28 to March 12.
Perhaps the most startling reply concerns the possible inclusion of Russia in the EU, given that the issue is not even on the table today.
While three former Soviet republics have joined the 27-member bloc and others , like Ukraine are seeking entry, Russia -- after looking to Europe in the 1990s -- has pulled back.
Yet among the Europeans polled, 50 percent of Italians, 49 percent of Spaniards, 34 percent of French and Germans, and 33 percent of Britons said they believed that the borders of the EU would encompass Russia -- a country stretching from the Baltic to the Bering Sea, far to the east of China -- by 2057.
By even larger numbers, respondents envisage the Europe of 2057 as encompassing Turkey. With the issue of Turkish membership a political hot potato in a Europe struggling to integrate the Muslims already within its borders, Italians polled believe most strongly that Turkey will join (58 percent), followed by respondents from Britain and Germany (46 percent), France (38 percent), and Spain (36 percent).
These results are "surprisingly revealing," said Timothy Garton Ash, professor of European studies at Oxford University.
"It's fascinating because it reveals some deep assumptions people make." Many Europeans "say Europe shouldn't expand to include Turkey and Russia," he said, "but deep down they believe it will. It shows you how much enlargement really is the story of the European Union."
Few respondents thought the EU would shrink by 2057, with this seen as most likely by the British, at 8 percent.
The British also stood out on the question of energy. All the other countries surveyed ranked wind and sun power as the most likely primary source of energy in 2057.
But nuclear energy outperformed wind and solar power by 9 percentage points in Britain, 47 percent to 38 percent.
In sun-splashed Spain, a full 68 percent see wind and solar power as the dominant energy of the future. Even in France, where nuclear energy is the primary source of electricity today, wind and sun power (48 percent) trumped nuclear energy (46 percent).
On the vital question of whether the European Union will still exist in 2057, the often skeptical French were the most positive, with 85 percent saying that it would. That opinion was shared by 84 percent in Italy, 82 percent in Spain, 76 percent in Germany, but only 62 percent in euro-skeptical Britain.
With EU leaders "struggling to conceal the pessimism and introversion they have felt since the French and Dutch no votes" on the European constitution, said Mark Leonard, executive director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a new pan-European research organization, "this poll should cheer them up."
The most positive view of life emerged in Italy and Spain. In line with their cheerful Mediterranean image, they had a brighter vision of the future than their neighbors to the north.
Asked whether the quality of life in their country in 2057 would be better, the same, or worse than today, 47 percent of Spaniards and 44 percent of Italians said it would improve, compared to 27 percent of the French, 26 percent of the British, and 22 percent of the Germans questioned.
Americans were split on the issue, with 31 percent saying quality of life would improve and 34 percent saying the opposite; the rest said it would be unchanged or had no opinion.
On the question of war and peace, majorities in all countries said that they expected a new war to break out on European soil by 2057 or that they were uncertain.
A third or fewer of the populations surveyed say they believe that a war involving Europe is unlikely to occur in the next 50 years.
