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Economics Nobel Predictions Postmortem

Posted by Samuel Arbesman  October 11, 2010 09:29 AM

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With the final of the Nobel Prizes announced earlier today, we now know that Peter A. Diamond, Dale T. Mortensen and Christopher A Pissarides will be awarded the Economics Nobel in December in Stockholm.

So, here's the important question: did anyone predict it correctly?

Every year, Thomson Reuters releases predictions for the scientific and economic Nobels, using citation data, as well as some common sense.

Essentially, they find those scientists whose papers are among the most cited (as a proxy for research impact and esteem among their colleagues), and then see if there are certain areas or themes that are deserving of a Prize this year (this part requires some finesse). Thomson Reuters got nothing correct this year.

Tyler Cowen, economist and blogger at Marginal Revolution, also released some predictions. He also struck out.

Greg Mankiw has links to more predictions, and among these we do seem to have a winner! Using voting of faculty, Northwestern's Kellogg school blog predicted it correctly.

And lastly, let's not forget that in the season premiere episode of the Simpsons, the writers also made a prediction of Jagdish Bhagwati's win. This too, alas, was wrong.


(The Simpsons)

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