UKRAINE’S ENTHRALLING Orange Revolution of 2004 has lost its shine. This turnabout became obvious when the original villain of the piece, pro-Russian apparatchik Viktor Yanukovych, defeated the Orange heroes Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Timoshenko in this winter’s presidential election. Much of what went wrong for the West-leaning Orange camp was the result of internecine feuds between its leaders and a failure to meet popular expectations of an economic take-off.
But the most telling sign that the Orange Revolution has diverged from its original path was this week’s announcement that the new government will legislate against Ukraine joining any military alliance.
The new law will end Ukraine’s six-year pursuit of membership in NATO. For anti-Russian nationalists such as former President Yushchenko, this means giving up a dream of Western protection against any designs on Ukraine that may persist in the Kremlin.
But Ukraine’s new stance outside any military bloc could be good for the country, for relations between Russia and the NATO countries, and for American interests — at least for now. The Kremlin has been obsessed by the specter of Ukraine entering NATO, even publishing a military doctrine that designates this prospect as Russia’s top external security threat.
The new direction Ukraine has chosen can ease the way for a US-Russian agreement to reduce the two sides’ nuclear arsenals and improve chances for Russian cooperation to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Also, it is an open secret that the major countries of Western Europe have no intention of accepting Ukraine into NATO anytime soon. So as Ukrainians turn toward the unromantic aftermath of their revolution, trying to build a productive economy and accommodate political changes, they could well benefit from a little isolation — neither as Russia’s puppet nor its number-one target.
