
Ty Burr says ...
For a long stretch of the run-up to Oscar night, it seemed as if best picture would be Abraham Lincolns to lose. But momentum has shifted in recent weeks: The perceived snub of Ben Affleck in the directing category and his movies strong showing at the Golden Globes and elsewhere means that Argo now has the edge. Beasts wont win but its still the years most startlingly original vision. Les Miz is more bizarre Broadway/CGI mutation than a movie.
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Will win
Argo -
Should win
Beasts of the Southern Wild
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Shouldn't be here
Les Misérables -
Was robbed
Moonrise Kingdom

Janice Page says ...
Only three films have ever won a best picture Oscar without their directors being nominated; Argo will make it four. Post-academy snub, Ben Affleck has been an unstoppable awards hoarder. Amour is too dark and too foreign, Beasts of the Southern Wild and Life of Pi too flawed, Wes Andersons brilliant Moonrise Kingdom too not here. Lincoln? It only has Daniel Day-Lewis emancipating slaves. Argo has Hollywood itself emancipating hostages.
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Will win
Argo -
Should win
Amour
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Shouldn't be here
Life of Pi -
Was robbed
Moonrise Kingdom